Will Politics Throw a Wrench in Commercial Real Estate Works?
Political and global economic uncertainties could significantly affect commercial real estate over the coming year. What will come to pass? Only time will tell…
2017 Headlines to Watch
Be on the lookout – politics may toss the industry a big curve ball in the following arenas:
CMBS lenders are gearing up the “skin-in-the-game regulations” that are part-and-parcel of the Dodd-Frank Act. Requiring CMBS lenders to hold on to 5% of new deals or assign the risk to a B-piece buyer. These efforts to reduce risk could lead to a changed commercial-lending landscape, lowering revenue for everyone from property owners to deal sponsors and loan distributors.
Strategies are expected to change as a result of risk-retention rules. However President Trump, who called the Dodd-Frank Act a “disaster” and “disgrace,” noted he “will be working to dismantle it.” Though unlikely to be repealed, it’s could be significantly reduced under the administration.
Rising Interest Rates
Deregulation and other economic stimuli, including a larger deficit, are expected to continue to fuel rising interest rates. An indicator of a stronger economy and typically associated with a strong real estate market, rising rates could prove a double-edged sword. However, they’ll constrain property deals, making commercial real estate less affordable and inviting more cautious borrowing and lending.
Administration-induced trade reductions and continued friction between the U.S. and other world powers are expected to continue to muddy waters. Chinese investment in U.S. commercial real estate may be on the downswing according to reports from the financial press in late November of last year. While the E.U.’s BREXIT deal may (or may not) raise the appeal of American real estate investments.
Political uncertainties giving you a commercial real estate headache? We don’t have a crystal ball – but we do have your back. Lobby for control of your business. Contact Properties Online today.