Tag archive for "interest rates" | Blog.PropertiesOnline.com

Commercial Real Estate Trends That Are “Outside the Box”

Will Politics Throw a Wrench in Commercial Real Estate Works?
Political and global economic uncertainties could significantly affect commercial real estate over the coming year. What will come to pass? Only time will tell…

2017 Headlines to Watch
Be on the lookout – politics may toss the industry a big curve ball in the following arenas:

Lender Regulation
CMBS lenders are gearing up the “skin-in-the-game regulations” that are part-and-parcel of the Dodd-Frank Act. Requiring CMBS lenders to hold on to 5% of new deals or assign the risk to a B-piece buyer. These efforts to reduce risk could lead to a changed commercial-lending landscape, lowering revenue for everyone from property owners to deal sponsors and loan distributors.

Strategies are expected to change as a result of risk-retention rules. However President Trump, who called the Dodd-Frank Act a “disaster” and “disgrace,” noted he “will be working to dismantle it.” Though unlikely to be repealed, it’s could be significantly reduced under the administration.

Rising Interest Rates
Deregulation and other economic stimuli, including a larger deficit, are expected to continue to fuel rising interest rates. An indicator of a stronger economy and typically associated with a strong real estate market, rising rates could prove a double-edged sword. However, they’ll constrain property deals, making commercial real estate less affordable and inviting more cautious borrowing and lending.

Foreign Investment
Administration-induced trade reductions and continued friction between the U.S. and other world powers are expected to continue to muddy waters. Chinese investment in U.S. commercial real estate may be on the downswing according to reports from the financial press in late November of last year. While the E.U.’s BREXIT deal may (or may not) raise the appeal of American real estate investments.

Political uncertainties giving you a commercial real estate headache? We don’t have a crystal ball – but we do have your back. Lobby for control of your business. Contact Properties Online today.

Real Estate Home Sales Are Hot! What's Up for the Rest of 2018?

Brace Yourself for Higher Home Loan Interest Rates in 2017

Historically low interest rates have finally begun to rise in recent months, and they are expected to continue this climb. How will this affect your real estate selling endeavors in 2017?

Steady incline
Housing and economy experts concur rates are not likely to go back down. Uber-low rates are in the rear view, with 30-year fixed-rates expected to stay in the 4-5% range by year’s end. A rise to 4.5% is expected, with the worst-case scenario knocking at the door of 5%. This is expected to reduce home sales over the course of the year by about 200,000 homes.

Buyer blowback
As rates climb, buyers may feel pressure to act. At a certain point, their home ownership dream will be stretched to the breaking point, but we aren’t there yet. At today’s rental rates, mortgage rates would have to be in the 7-10% range to equate rental costs.

Cooling “hot” markets
In expensive markets (LA, NYC, Miami) interest rates will push out buyers already struggling to afford homes, even with historically low rates.

Rate lock
Real estate selling may also be stymied, as sellers will effectively be “rate locked” into homes with no incentive to move, slowing the existing-home market and leaving homeowners to renovate existing spaces over higher interest rate new home loans.

Extenuating circumstances
Also playing a role: Income levels, which could stave off a decline so long as stronger economic development continues. The Fed raising short-term rates is also up in the air, as Trump’s inauguration, political appointments, and policy changes take their toll. The Fed raising rates won’t necessarily translate into higher mortgages for buyers – but it will add pressure, especially if they start raising rates aggressively and into early next year. Expect volatility in the next few months as the new President settles in.

How will the economic and political climate effect real estate selling in 2017? Properties Online has the forecast for success.

Bubble Identification Tips – What to Know Before the Bubble Bursts in Your City

For agents whose real estate careers survived the 2008 bubble burst, scrutinizing real estate trends in hopes of protecting yourself from subsequent disasters should now be a common practice. What things should you look toward as a means of predicting if things might blow up in your face, yet again?

These real estate trends may signal a market that’s about to pop:

• Shaky loans
Subprime lending is risky. Though the FHA still offers loans with minimal down payments (3.5%), lending practices deviating from current elevations in underwriting standards may signal a need for caution.

• Over-extended leverage
A bubble means lots of leverage – banks accepting minuscule down payments from buyers as a means of securing the purchase. Current trends this year point to a cycle devoid of leverage. The average buyer is putting down about 35%, and in some markets, cash buys are up, such as in New York City where 45% of transaction are cash.

• Home prices outpacing salaries
When home prices rise and salaries don’t, people feel forced to rent or driven to eke out an existence in a home they can barely afford. It doesn’t take a genius to realize that this isn’t sustainable. If business isn’t rising in outlying markets, but only in main metropolises in combination with shaky loans and leverage overextensions, keep watch with a wary eye. (Keep in mind here, we do not mean rapid home appreciation, but unsustainable rapid price appreciation, which fundamentals don’t support.)

• Slowing foreign interest
Markets in need of correction may see a drop in international buyer demand. Toss in a natural disaster or disease outbreak, like Zika, and it may be time to break out the ponchos. Case-in-point: Miami.

• Rising interest rates
Rising interest rates typically coincide with a drop in affordability, and thus housing demand.
Real estate trends have you feeling the pressure? Properties Online can help ease the bloat. Discover how today.