Tag archive for "real estate forecast" | Blog.PropertiesOnline.com

Forbes Commentator on the 2018 Real Estate Forecast

In real estate news, the national real estate forecast for 2018-2019 is pointing to declining demand for new (not replacement) single family dwellings (houses, apartments, condos, and mobile homes). What are the driving forces behind the prediction for housing market deceleration?

Population Growth Slams on the Brakes
The biggest driver of housing demand growth, population growth is at its slowest in recent years. Last year, the U.S. population rose a meager 0.7% – the lowest gain on the books since 1937. Before the last recession, growth hovered around 1.2%, which isn’t as close to that 0.7% as you think: At that growth rate, housing built for new demand is far less than those needed to accommodate 1.2% population growth, a mere 58%. Forget old housing start averages. Look to the previous year’s builds and expect moderate additions.

Pent-Up Demand is Puttering Out
Non-rental housing of mostly single-family homes and some condos is currently at an average vacancy rate of 1.4-1.5%, compared to 2.9% during the recession. Supply is no tighter than normal, and though nationwide price increases are a bit on the high-side, a housing bubble is not imminent.

Employment and Wages are Out of Gas
With job growth relatively slow and wage inflation yet to accelerate, people are less able to live on their own, whether that means moving out of a parent’s basement or absconding from an ex-spouse. Though wage rates are expected to improve next year, the change is not expected soon enough to influence demand for housing.

Local Fluctuations Pose Obstacles
Though these forces drive new demand nationally, local fluctuations should be expected. Real estate news pointing to an excess of homes in Flint or Detroit will not help those searching for homes in Miami or NYC. Looking to the above demographics in your state or metropolitan area may reinforce or negate this ‘new build’ barometer.

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House Canary, Inc. Launches Real Estate Prediction Tool

House Canary, Inc. announced on Tuesday that is has launched an advanced big data and analytics platform that accurately forecasts real estate values across all 381 US metro areas. House Canary, a real estate predictive analytics company, is a homeowner’s “canary in the coal mine”, providing advance notice of downturns and upturns in the real estate market.

HouseCanary.com provides property owners in the US with a simple and accurate forecast for what is likely to happen to home values in their area over the next few years. While a home represents most people’s single largest investment in life, there is insufficient information available to help people understand likely future real estate price swings in their area and appropriately plan. HouseCanary is launching a free-mium web service to help homeowners create value. Why? “Our goal is to arm every current and future homeowner, who has most of their net worth wrapped up in their home, with better information about their home’s future value, and why it is likely to change,” states HouseCanary’s Founders.

HouseCanary is both highly reputable and accurate. Using real estate big data dating back over 40 years, the company creates accurate monthly forecasts up to 36 months into the future, with an average of 0.93 r-squared; meaning the forecasts explain over 90% of future movement in real estate markets. The company employs rigorous techniques in statistics and econometric analysis, utilizing real estate and economic data combined with search trend data, social sentiment, and proprietary local social metrics that help provide insight into the behavioral element that drives real estate markets.

By combining real estate and social data with predictive algorithms to produce accurate forecasts, “HouseCanary has done the impossible, coming up with amazingly accurate models that allow individuals and institutions to more easily navigate the complex and confusing landscape of real estate data,” says Lee Sherman, co-founder of Visual.ly. “We’re excited to partner with them to power their interactive visual infographics.”

HouseCanary also serves the most sophisticated institutions, including homebuilders, mortgage banks and REIT’s with highly detailed predictive forecasts. For Institutional clients, HouseCanary provides details on the drivers of the forecasts, and sensitivities for how changes in interest rates and other factors will affect prices going forward in each market.

Stay tuned for major new developments from HouseCanary that will be coming out very soon.

About HouseCanary, Inc.
HouseCanary is a real estate predictive analytics company that combines state-of-the-art big data approaches, predictive analytics, and data visualization to accurately forecast and communicate future real estate values at the metro and zip code level. HouseCanary serves institutional clients, investors, realtors and consumers. HouseCanary was founded by a team that includes former partners from the world’s leading strategy consulting firms and Statistics PhD’s from leading universities. To learn more about HouseCanary, please visit Housecanary.com or call +1 888 818 6328.

Media contact:
HouseCanary PR
Email: PR@HouseCanary.com
Phone#: 888-818-6328