Time to Get Listed for the Season

Forbes Article Writer Predicts No Housing Recession in 2019

Stressing out over recent real estate selling trends pointing to a housing recession on the horizon? Not everyone is on board with that assessment, including Forbes article contributor Lawrence Yun. Despite existing home sales falling 2%, falling nearly every month of 2018, and a 12% decline in housing starts (typically an indicator of a recession), Yun does not see the possibility of a downturn on the horizon.

A Difference of Opinion

Yun sees incorrect conclusions being drawn from these statistics. He notes that rather than a demand shortage, as seen at the depths of the 2008 housing recession in which an oversupply of 12 months of inventory was on the market, today it’s quite the opposite.

Real estate selling trends showcase a shortage of inventory. It would take just 4.3 months to exhaust current supplies, as compared to a balanced market of 6-7-months of inventory. Homes continue to be pocketed at a swift pace, spending very little time on the market (about 26-days in June).

Bidding wars are still alive and well. Demand is there. Supply is not. ‘A problem much better to have,’ denotes Yun, who believes muted growth points to neither a price decline nor a looming foreclosure crisis.

Making Sense of Muted Growth

So what does he believe 2018’s muted growth points to? The affordability crisis. As a lack of inventory drives prices up, especially in hot markets, buyers are increasingly being priced out of home ownership. Until more homes are built to meet entry-level housing needs, prices will continue to climb.

The 1.3 million housing starts projected in 2019 will be insufficient to moderate prices and support sales. Skilled labor shortages, tariffs, crippling impact fees, and laborious permitting processes don’t help. Yun sees this as a far cry from the overbuilding and overzealous lending practices pre-bubble.

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Technology Disrupters Coming to Real Estate in 2019

Technology Disrupters Coming to Real Estate in 2019

Tariffs. Government shutdowns. Stock market shenanigans. 2019 marks a period of uncertainty, with a variety of disruptors affecting not only real estate trends, but national and global affairs. However, the greatest disruptor is predicted to be Technology!

What Technology will Impact the Real Estate World in 2019?

Despite the overall economic slowdown expected, these emerging trends in tech could provide new opportunity for a market in flux:

New Platforms for Home Sales

iBuying, offering purchase of homes sight unseen based on a proprietary valuation model, is among the real estate trends luring sellers (and buyers) to off-the-beaten-path venues. Digitally-driven platforms such as Open Listings, Door, Rex, and Opendoor are luring buyers and sellers alike with flat-rate commissions, sight-unseen cash offers, and a more digital listing/shopping experience.

Continual Rise of AI

We’re not talking robots giving home tours. We’re talking artificial intelligence that can perform sophisticated data analysis capable of predicting market trends. The latest AI-powered platforms can aggregate once isolated data, constantly updating to arm agents and consumers with with all the information they need. This can help buyers/sellers negotiate the best deal and agents to immediately jump on sales leads.

Virtual Reality

As property videos increase in popularity, VR will soon be on the horizon.

Blockchain

Redefining real estate transactions, blockchain technology is facilitating major transactions (like real estate) without intermediaries (banks, credit card companies). With ‘tokenization,’ blockchain is opening the door to new opportunities for sellers, granting multiple investors the ability to buy just a portion of a property (and resell it).

Smart contracts via Propy and other services are allowing for purchasing transactions with no human interaction, which streamlines the process. In the future, it is hoped to pave the way for a smoother road, reducing fees, closing times, property title issues, and fraud.

What real estate trends are shaking up your world? Safeguard sales with the help of Properties Online today.

Zillow Predictions for 2019 - Affordable Housing or Not. What's Next?

Zillow Predictions for 2019 – Affordable Housing or Not. What’s Next?

Will your real estate selling income take a hit in the near future? Top economic and housing experts foretell of a dip in housing prices by 2020. Now sellers may join the throngs of buyers under pressure in the current market, rushing to unload their homes while the market is hot.

How Soon Might the Effects of a Downturn be Felt?

Surveyed by Zillow and research firm Pulsenomics, 100 real estate experts and economists had previously predicted a recession in late 2019. Now, however, roughly half have predicted the onset within the first quarter of 2020. This parallels predictions by economists in a Wall Street Journal survey, noting the current market expansion, which began in 2009, is ‘long in the tooth by historical standards’ and cannot hold.

Should You Ramp Up Real Estate Selling Efforts?

Though the housing market played a major role in the last recession, experts generally agree it won’t play a central role in the next. Much remains unknown about the recession’s precise path, however, though there are some known factors expected to play a role:

Housing affordability.

A critical issue in nearly every market nationwide.

Monetary policy.

If the Fed raises short-term rates too quickly, slower growth is a logical result.

Trade policy.

The impact of tariffs continues to impact the national/global economy.

Stock market correction.

2018 volatility foreshadows a crisis/correction.

Impacts on the Real Estate Market

With widespread job losses, and with long-term unemployment in particular, the housing market will soften regardless. The extent of the economy’s spillover into the housing market will depend largely on the length and severity of the next recession. Some regions of the country will feel the impact more than others, particularly high-value markets such as NYC, Seattle, Miami, L.A., San Francisco, and San Diego.

Should you be listening to chicken little? Stay up on the real estate selling market news, avoiding calamity with the help of Properties Online today.

Fall 2019 May Be a Better Time for Listings and Sale Than the Projections for 2020

What’s Predicted to Happen to Real Estate Sales in 2019?

The U.S. economy is going strong, with high consumer confidence and a booming housing market. Despite this seemingly rosy picture, however, investors, agents, and homebuyers are collectively concerned about the potential for real estate trends to take a turn for the worst. Let’s take a look at mitigating factors.

Excessively High Home Prices

Rising interest rates, rapidly rising home prices, and government policy turbulence lend some credence to crash concerns, especially for buyers in hot markets. How long can a $40,000 salary support a luxury car, lavish lifestyle, and monster mortgage? An economic downturn or sudden rise in unemployment could quickly fuel financial instability.

Rising Interest Rates

A recent Forbes report noted virtually all modern rate hikes have led to recession, financial or banking crises. If the Fed continues rolling-out rate increases, inflation will slow down sales, particularly in hot markets. Cost and availability of credit are fuel for bubble inflation, inviting less credit-worthy/inexperienced buyers into the game.

Rising rates are a negative indicator of future real estate trends. Financing will prove difficult, even though home prices aren’t as high as 2006/2007, mortgage rates are lower, there are fewer zero-down buyers, and there’s no ‘creative financing,’ for those burdened with debt.

Stock Market Volatility

Could stock market volatility factor into a housing crash? Despite a thriving housing market and rising home construction, 100 economic experts polled by Zillow believe a recession is on the horizon for 2020. If Americans are employed and wages rising, some believe this may not result in a bubble, but some aren’t convinced.

Trade War with China

Some see the end of free trade a foreboding sign. The tightly woven network of the world’s economies are interdependent. The current trend toward ‘trade protectionism’ could impact those markets, creating a backlash for the U.S. housing market where foreign economies invest.

Get the tips and tricks you need to ensure success with the help of Properties Online today.

Shutting Down the Money - Chinese Real Estate Investments Dry Up

A Long Term Look – The Reality of Real Estate Sales 2018 and 2019

Though home prices have grown by 5% and new home sales are up 7.4%, real estate selling trends show existing home sales down slightly by 2.2%, leading many to worry. Is a downturn on the horizon? In the shadows of the 2008 housing market crash, how steep and how fast will it occur?

The Sky is NOT Falling

Despite higher mortgage rates and home prices, real estate selling statistics show home ownership rates inching higher, from a cyclical low of 63% in late 2015, to 64.4% in the second quarter of 2018. While the rental market remained neutral, 3 million new homeowners were added to the books. What’s more, aggregate owners’ equity is expected to grow $1.4 trillion this year, bringing net housing equity to over $15 trillion. At just $6 trillion in the depths of the market crash, today’s market actually paints an impressive picture.

The Bubble Won’t Burst

Today’s market is fundamentally different from that of 10 years ago:

– Lending standards are stringent, with those capable of securing a mortgage showcasing higher than normal credit scores.

– Defaults and foreclosures are at historic lows.

– Overbuilding, seen in the start of the bubble days, is a non-issue (in fact, quite the opposite).

So What’s Hindering Home Sales?

Limited housing inventory. We have gone from oversupply during the crash, to falling levels for 8 of the 10 past years. Homes are selling at a record pace. It would take only 4.3 months to exhaust total inventory. Demand is there, supply is not, creating the source of market headaches.

To meet market needs and boost affordability, new homes must be built, with starts expected to rise in 2019, though lumber tariffs, labor shortages, and locating space for new development will continue to temper growth.

Know when to look up, when to look forward, and when to duck for cover. Prepare for the future of real estate selling with the help of Properties Online today.